Since August, RMB has appeared to be appreciating rapidly. According to statistics from China Foreign Exchange Trading System, the middle exchange rate of RMB against USD was 6.1668 on August 9, 35 base points higher than that of the previous day, marking the fifth consecutive day of rising rate of RMB against USD.
Affected by that, the spot exchange rate of RMB against USD has remained strong, once reaching 6.1143 on August 8, refreshing the highest record since the exchange reform in July 2005. The fierce appreciation of RMB recently has mainly been caused by short-term factors, and space for continuous appreciation of RMB is rather limited in the future.
The market??s favorable expectation for the Chinese economy has propelled the continuous appreciation of RMB. According to statistics, China??s import and export both grew vehemently in July, with export growing 9.1 percent and import 14.8 percent. Also, compared to the same period of last year, CPI in July rose 2.7 percent, within expectation, and PPI fell 2.3 percent, the decrease rate narrowed further, indicating slow and stabilizing growth of the economy, which provides certain momentum for the appreciation of RMB.
Recently, USD index have been weak, which also puts some appreciation pressure on RMB. On one hand, the main economic data published by the US government recently failed to meet expectations, resulting in the depreciation of USD; on the other hand, there has been increased uncertainty of the Federal Reserve??s quitting quantitative easing policy, causing changes of market expectation and correction of USD to certain extent. This is also an indication that the recent forceful appreciation of the RMB has been a normal response to market fluctuation and does not mean that RMB has entered a new round of appreciation channel.
At present, RMB has basically achieved a balanced level, and it would stay on a comparatively stable and two-way fluctuating trend in the long run. Statistics show that of the 113 trading days in the first half of the year, 59 trading days had seen appreciation of RMB and 54 depreciation, with maximum daily rise of 0.20 percent and maximum daily fall of 0.15 percent. In the meantime, the highest middle rate of RMB against USD had been 6.1598 and the lowest 6.2898; besides, exchange rates of RMB against other major currencies like Euro and Yan have also shown apparent traits of two-way fluctuation.
In the next half of the year, growth of the Chinese economy may slow down further due to shrunk demand and other factors. Meanwhile, the American economy may continue to grow, the Federal Reserve??s quitting the quantitative easing policy is a high-probability event, and the current weakness of the USD may change. On the contrary, influenced by the fluctuation of the international financial market and the sudden inflow and outflow of foreign capital in large amount, the exchange rate of RMB will be more obvious, and there might even be temporary depreciation.
As the extent and volume of the cross-border use of RMB expand rapidly, the RMB exchange rate, which is based on the supply-demand relation in the market, will become more stabilized. According to statistics from the central bank, in the first half of the year, commercial banks have dealt with a total of RMB 2.05 trillion Yuan of RMB settlement for cross-border trading, and a total of RMB 183.49 billion Yuan of RMB settlement for direct cross-border investment; foreign currency agencies have mobilized a total of RMB 9.32 billion Yuan. This has not only promoted the development of bilateral trading and investment, but also increased the fluidity of oversea RMB, which would help the exchange rate of RMB to stay on a reasonable and balanced level.
After the central bank??s first important step on July 20 to fully ease regulation on loan interest rate and make interest rate more market based, intense preparation for exchange reform has also been progressing. The Implementation Report of Currency Policy in the Second Quarter released by the central bank recently proposes to further optimize the forming mechanism of RMB exchange rate and improve the two-way fluctuation resilience of RMB exchange rate. This is an indication that the range of the fluctuation of the exchange rate of RMB may expand, which is conducive to mitigating the one-way inclination pressure of exchange rate and keep the exchange rate of RMB stable on a reasonable and balanced level.
sources from:CHINA ECONOMICA NET